How Countries are Preparing for Climate Change - 2c Fighting Fires in the Pyrocene

Back in the 1980s, one of the most coveted summer jobs for students – after Surf Life Saver, was being a Fire Spotter. That meant arming yourself with a good supply of books, snacks and water and sitting in a fire tower above the tree tops, hoping you wouldn’t see a wisp of smoke anywhere in that ocean of green. Most summers you didn't and at the end you got a nice fat cheque. Forty years on, satellites do the spotting and the students are serving coffee or asking "Would you like fries with that?"

Meanwhile, the fires have gotten bigger and more frequent. We now have “Megafires” and Firestorms which burn over large areas. Megafires are wildfires which burn 100,000 acres (40,500 hectares) or more and exhibit extreme behaviour—intensity, duration, and resistance to suppression. Some, like California’s August Complex or Australia’s Black Summer fires, have crossed into “Gigafire” territory, burning over a million acres. Australia's 2019 - 2020 fires covered 17 m hectares. 

Why it's Happening

The Short Answers

1. Climate change: Warmer, drier conditions extend fire seasons and intensify fuel loads.
2. Fire suppression legacy: Decades of extinguishing natural burns have left forests overstocked with combustible material.
3. Drought and wind: Prolonged dryness and erratic wind patterns e.g. in the Los Angeles fire Santa  Ana winds amplified fire spread. 
4. Assorted conspiracy theories including chemtrails, the World Economic Forum, aliens and a busy team of international arsonists

Leaving aside (d.) and looking at the answers which have come from extensive fire studies and scientific evidence, it isn't just the dryness. Warmer temperatures result in more evaporation, ocean warming, and heavier rainfall which may bring a flush of new growth, but the water runs off rapidly, and the vegetation dries out, adding to the combustible fuel load. Once a fire has started, it adds to the CO2 emissions and thus reinforces the cycle.  

🌍 Did You Know?

Global Average Temperature Rise: ~1.2°C

1 or 2°C degrees might not sound like much — but it’s the difference between a warm summer and a deadly heatwave.

 There is also some dispute about (b.)  because recent studies from California have shown that repeated burning and removal of leaf litter and the like, in fact adds to soil dryness and flammability. Some runaway 'controlled' burns have ignited the very fires they are supposed to prevent. Newly recognised  phenomena such as heat domes (see previous post) and dry lightning (see below) which affect large areas simultaneously, have also made fire fighting more difficult so that the way we fight fires is changing and much of the effort is going into prevention rather trying to stop them once started.  

What's Dry Lightning? 

 

Fire Fighting in the Age of Megafires - What's Changed? 

• Scale & Intensity: Megafires now burn millions of hectares, often with extreme heat and erratic behaviour. Traditional suppression tactics are often overwhelmed.
• Year-Round Fire Seasons: Fire seasons have expanded beyond summer — with significant burns also occurring in autumn and winter. Crews must stay mobilised longer.
• New Fire Behaviour: Fires can now create their own weather — generating pyro-cumulus clouds, dry lightning, and ember storms that leap 30+ km ahead of the front.

How Governments and Others are Responding

When fires do happen there is much greater reliance on aerial firefighting and remote sensing. Satellites, drones, and AI modelling are used to detect fires and predict fire spread.

There is also a shift towards landscape-scale planning rather than isolated suppression. Land use and building regulations are also changing in response to new circumstances. There's more collaboration across sectors and between countries, as many parts of the world must now grapple with conditions which they haven’t encountered before. 

Sadly, longstanding arrangements whereby fire fighters from North America came to help Australia during their off season and vice versa, are no longer possible, because fire seasons in both places now overlap. Lastly, there are considerable efforts to inform and enlist local communities in the whole spectrum of fire management from planning and suppression to rapid response and recovery.   

This post will mostly be about the new preventative strategies with a few examples of each.  

1.      High tech forecasting

2.      High tech mapping,  monitoring and warning

3.      Research – better materials, fire behaviour

4.      Better landscape - scale planning

5.      Fire aware zoning, town planning and building materials

6.      Response planning  and recovery -  evacuation plans, drills, family emergency plans, organisation

1.      HIGH TECH FORECASTING

Both NOAA (USA) and Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) offer long-range ocean temperature forecasts, often used in high-tech fire prediction and climate modelling. 

Until recently, NOAA provided up to 60% of the world’s climate and ocean data including the global Monitoring Laboratory and the billion dollar Disaster Data Base. There is now concern that recent budget cuts and the dismantling of services such as the Atmospheric Research Division, will leave many countries including Australia, bereft of the basic data needed to make accurate forecasts and give timely warnings. 

• BoM’s Ocean Temperature Outlooks use the ACCESS–S system—a physics-based climate model that produces weekly to seasonal SST forecasts, including 3-month projections.
• It’s used to monitor coral bleaching risk, marine heatwaves, and climate drivers like ENSO and the Indian Ocean Dipole—all of which affect fire weather patterns across Australia because heat stored in the ocean becomes wind, drought, and ignition risk on land.

2. MAPPING AND MONITORING

California typifies the brave new world of fire fighting with a mix of 130 aircraft, super computers and satellites. Its FIRIS—Fire Integrated Real-time Intelligence System—is one of the most advanced wildfire mapping and response tools in the world.

·         Sweden’s VIIRS satellite-based fire detection program, uses the infrared and visible spectrum data to analyse cell temperatures and radiative power (FRP) to estimate fire intensity and behaviour and immediately sends SOS alerts.

·         Portugal uses AI for risk mapping, Fire Risk Zoning (see below) and alerts. With excessive smoke hampering the operations of many of its aircraft in 2024 and budgetary constraints leading to reduced manpower,  Portugal is relying heavily on high -tech fire -fighting. Drones fly over and report unusual heat signals via  AI models.  Its recently launched FireSat satellite, beams perimeter maps within moments of ignition and signals codes one hour ahead and a smartphone app relays alerts in English and Portuguese.

·         Other types of mapping include using Google maps to identify everything from potential water sources to evacuation routes in Fire Plans being developed by local communities. 

3. RESEARCH

Being no stranger to large fires, Australia has done and is doing extensive research into all aspects of fire behaviour. This is largely conducted by the CSIRO, the Commonwealth  Scientific and Industrial Organisationwhose multidisciplinary teams of scientists go on to advise government, planners and others.  Below are just some of the areas which are or have been intensely studied. Its Forest Fire Index for example, developed in 1967, still forms the backbone of the present day, daily warning system. 

 CSIRO bushfire-related research, includes:

·     Understanding and predicting bushfire behaviour

·    Developing prediction and fire data analysis tools

·       Impact of bushfires on infrastructure

·       Disaster management

·        Pollutants and greenhouse gases as a result of bushfires

·     Smoke forecasting for bushfires and prescribed burns

·       Building community resilience and risk management

·        Reducing impacts in the face of disasters

·        Preparing for climate change and extreme events

·   Investigating and reconstructing major wildfire events to aid learning and model development. 

• Europe’s SAFER program has been operating for 3 ½ years and uses the Copernicus Earth Observation Satellite Technology to run joint simulation exercises to train fire crews and the like.

• Norway’s RISE research Facility runs Europe’s TREEAD  program which brings together researchers from 14 European countries and Taiwan. It uses drones and high -altitude balloons to detect fire, collect data and drop fire suppressant material. 

• Sweden’s 2018 Megafire sparked interdisciplinary research into carbon flux, soil recovery, and post-fire management (See also its forestry studies under Landscape Management). 
  
  
•  Finland is working on practical fire prevention products such as:

-Bio – based fire retardant coatings for timber products

-Intelligent stove sensors and ventilators for use in homes and hotels to prevent cooking fires

-A wireless monitor for barns to prevent spontaneous combustion of hay. While these may seem modest, they cover three of the world's most common causes of fire. 

•  Australia's new firewatchers are these 24 hour monitors from Attentis which detect lightning, arson and powerline failures as soon as they start. 
  
  
•  Meet "Firefly," modern US drone technology for firefighting here.. 

4. LANDSCAPE MANAGEMENT

🌍 Did You Know?

European Land Temperature Rise: ~2.2°C

Europe is now the fastest-warming continent, with cascading impacts on health, fire risk, and infrastructure.

The increasing frequency of large wildfires, especially around the Mediterranean – Portugal, Greece, Spain, Italy and France, has also prompted a major research program by the European Commission looking at cost effective and sustainable ways to reduce fire risk in many different environments, from moist alpine ones to dry coastal scrublands.

Given diverse forms of land ownership and fire management, controlled burning, traditional pruning practices, the creation of firebreaks and surprisingly, the extensive use of goats and grazing animals for fuel load reduction, have come out on top.  Chile uses goats for this purpose too. 

⚠️ Although goats might be winners in some regions, this does not apply everywhere. Feral goats, horses, camels and other grazing animals have wrought untold havoc on Australia’s fragile natural vegetation.

•  Sweden -     Two findings by the Research Institutes of Sweden (RISE) have concluded that smaller stands of timber help to contain fires and that mixing species, rather than having monocultures of pines or other species, slows the spread of fires.
  
  
•  Germany is now using this model as well. 
  
  
• Chile  has meanwhile come to the conclusion that exotic species such as Pinus Radiata and Eucalyptus Forest accounted for 50% of its forest losses compared to only 20% among native species and even less among grasslands. Given the economic cost and social costs of such large fires  - it too has had Megafires in recent years, Chile is encouraging a return to planting of native forest species. 

Incorporating Indigenous knowledge and the limitations of Cultural Burning Practices

Several countries including Canada, Australia, Chile and parts of the USA such as California, are encouraging Indigenous Fire Stewardship and reviving cultural burning practices to reduce fuel loads and restore ecological balance.

In Australia, this involved frequent small fires in Eucalyptus forests, which kept the ground free of flammable material  and stopped major fires from gaining a foothold and spreading. However, it can be very destructive in other types of vegetation such as Tasmania’s temperate rainforests and its alpine heathlands which are not adapted to fire and do not recover. 

·         Likewise the accepted practice  particularly in Australia and places such as California, of having “prescribed burning” – controlled burns, of small areas, during spring and autumn to reduce fuel loads, may no longer be as effective as it once was. This could be due to the fact that ‘Bushfire season” is no longer confined to the summer in a hotter, drier world.

·         California.also has Prescribed Burn Cooperatives - Local groups trained to conduct controlled burns safely, often in partnership with Indigenous firekeepers.

·         Texas has Firewise Landscaping Incentives: Homeowners receive support to redesign gardens and buffers to reduce ignition risk. It also has Community Fire Readiness Plans with emphasis on local volunteer brigades, water access mapping, and evacuation route planning. 

 5.  Zoning Changes, Changes to Building Regulations

Fire Risk Zoning

Fire risk zoning refers to the strategic division of land into zones based on the level of bushfire risk, with each zone assigned specific management objectives and mitigation strategies. Communities are usually involved in creating Fire Plans and deciding how zones will be defended, based on their resources.

Typical Fire Risk Zones

Zone Type	Purpose
Asset Protection Zone	Minimise risk to life and property. Often includes fuel reduction and firebreaks.
Bushfire Buffer Zone	Slow the spread of fire between bushland and developed areas.
Conservation Zone	Protect ecological values while managing fire risk through low-impact methods.

·       Finland categorizes regions by risk level, with strict time constraints for emergency response. For example, in high-risk zones, rescue units must arrive within 10 minutes of an emergency call.

New Building Regulations

On February 7, 2009, the State of Victoria (AU) experienced the deadliest bushfire it had ever seen. The Black Saturday Bushfires claimed 173 lives, 2000 homes, millions of native animals and 450, 000 ha of bushland. They also ushered in a whole raft of  new building regulations, especially in that state.

Typical elements  include the following:

·         Bushfire Prone Area Mapping – If land falls within this zone – usually on the urban fringe where bushland meets the city, then it will have much stricter fire regulations

·         Bushfire Attack Level – this is a Flame Zone ranking, possibly based on the type of vegetation, or proximity or density. The higher the rating the tougher the construction requirements

·         The National Standard now requires:

-Non – combustible Materials

-Sealed Gaps to prevent entry of embers

-Bushfire resistant Doors, Windows and Roofs

-Defendable space around the property – e.g. clear of trees and other vegetation 

·     Local or State Government Planning Schemes may have a Bushfire Management Overlay for new buildings which have special requirements for site layout, access for emergency vehicles, vegetation management requirements and a water supply. Unfortunately developers, home owners and builders are very frustrated by the amount of “Red and Green Tape” (bureaucratic hurdles) they must now go through to get buildings in bushfire zones approved, not only because of the additional costs but also because of the delays  involved. 

Australia: Internal Fire-Safe Zones

Some of Australia’s bushfire-prone regions have embraced “Bushfire Shelters” or “Fire-Resistant Rooms” as part of building codes in high-risk zones. These are:

• Non-combustible, airtight rooms with fire-rated doors and walls
• Often integrated into garages or basements
• Designed for short-term refuge if evacuation fails. 

United States: Storm Shelters & Fire Zones 

 While storm shelters are widely used in tornado-prone areas, fire-safe zones are addressed through:

• The NFPA 101 Life Safety Code which requires fire-rated compartments, escape routes, and suppression systems
• The International Building Code (IBC): Mandates fire-resistant materials and passive fire protection like fireblocking in concealed spaces
• Some states such as California, promote “hardened homes” with interior safe zones and exterior ignition-resistant features

Europe: Passive Fire Protection

Passive fire protection may include the following:

• Cavity fire barriers in walls and floors to prevent internal spread
• Fire-resistant compartments in multi-unit dwellings
• UK fire-safe zones through structural fire resistance and escape route planning

Cavity fires aren't as big an issue in the rest of Europe as they are in The UK, Australia and the USA, because most walls are of solid materials such as concrete. In the UK cavity barriers are now mandatory.  For more on Fire Safety Regulations in different countries click here or here

Retrofitting & ‘Hardening’ Existing Homes  

Older buildings in vulnerable areas can be retrofitted to make them more fireproof by inclusion of the following:

• Fire shutters
  
  
• Ember guards
  
  
• Sprinkler systems
  
  
• Metal mesh screens

·         California also favours this approach with some counties now restricting development in high-risk areas or requiring fire-resilient design from the outset.

·         Insurance Retreat: Major insurers are pulling out of fire-prone zones, forcing new models of risk-sharing and making some areas less desirable

·        This a problem in Australia too with the high cost of premiums leaving many uninsured and under -insured and unable to rebuild after a fire. In some cases, they may even still owe money to the bank as well. This is something which state governments are trying to resolve as the problem is likely to get worse, rather than better.  

Alternatives being considered include  community risk pools to self insure, governments backing private insurers as they do in France and Spain, or state level catastrophe funds as they have in Florida. One thing is certain, we will all end up paying one way or another. 

 The High Cost of Doing Nothing

Some will argue that the cost of doing things differently is too high as is trying to reach NET ZERO, but if we look at the current and rising costs of fires and other disasters, not counting the non-monetary costs such as  trauma, displacement and ecological collapse, that will be the least of our worries.

 According to NOAA, “From1980 to September 2024, the United States alone experienced 396 weather and climate disaster events with losses exceeding $1 billion each. These events included droughts, floods, severe storms, tropical cyclones, wildfires and winter storms, resulting in substantial economic losses and thousands of deaths.” The picture is hardly brighter elsewhere:

🌍 Region	🔥 Major Events	Estimated Costs	Notes*
Australia	2019–2020 Black Summer	$4.5 billion AUD	Property, agriculture, tourism, health; biodiversity loss ongoing
California (US)	Annual (esp. 2017–2023 peak years)	$394B–$893B USD/year	2–4% of US GDP; $20–25B in insurance  payouts; $2B in wine smoke damage
Canada	2023 wildfire season	$1 billion CAD (insured losses)	18M+ hectares burned; full economic toll still unfolding
European Union	2024 (esp. Southern Europe)	€930 million (Italy alone)	EU Civil Protection activated 29 times; rising costs across member states
Chile	2023 wildfires	$300 million USD	Major agricultural disruption; thousands of homes lost
Portugal	2017 wildfires	€500 million	66 deaths; repeated fire seasons strain rural economies

* (If you are reading this on your phone and it looks scrambled, turn your phone sideways). 

 The question is rather, can we afford not to do it. Mitigation may not only be cheaper in the long run, but would save much needless suffering. 

I could go on about every country's individual plan, but I did promise to keep this shorter and hope this will inspire you to make or look at your own. 

Several countries have fire drills. Sweden for example, has them multiple times a year with evacuation routes, smoke simulation and role - based responses. Japan has a special Disaster Prevention Day on September 1 each year, which includes fire and earthquake simulations. Germany has special fire drills for schools, workplaces and care homes. Canada has them in schools and workplaces and in fire prone areas such as British Columbia, they include evacuation rehearsals. That's the only kind of "Drill, baby drill, " I want to see.

 

 My thanks to Microsoft Copilot for this and other Information and the Graphics and my son's endless patience trying to fix my tables.

Was going to plunge straight into "Water, Storms, Rain bombs and Cyclones" but it looks like I lost a few people by sticking to one topic for a whole month as I did with the Rainforests, so I thought I might mix it up a bit this time in case you aren't all that interested in this one.