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Lost in Space -PART II: A New Space Race and New Challenges

Image by Pexels from Pixabay

Did you know there was a new Space Race in progress? Before we go on to that, I just want to touch on this year’s theme for Space Week which was about “Living in Space.”

Living In Space 

With over 100 missions either planned or in progress, there's no doubt that dream is coming closer.  Mars Rovers, Venus Probes and Interstellar observatories are all happening. Here are a some of the highlights:

Although NASA planned to have humans on the Moon by 2024, funding cuts have meant some delays, but its Artemis Program is preparing for another lunar orbit mission to lay the groundwork for a sustainable human presence there. Intuitive Machines IM-2 is attempting a second Nova-C lunar landing under NASA’s outsourcing program to deliver payloads to the Moon’s surface. The development of habitation modules, air, water and energy supply systems for the long stay of a human on the Moon continues. 

  • In collaboration with NASA, ICON is developing 3D printing robots capable of building lunar habitats from local materials such as lunar regolith. This approach is aimed at building infrastructures such as houses, landing pads and roads directly on the lunar surface.
  • Lockheed Martin is exploring the use of water as a resource for life support and propulsion systems on the Moon. Their concept involves the extraction and use of lunar water to support human activities and mobility on the lunar surface. It’s anticipated that hydrogen will be able to be extracted from the polar regions of the moon to enable further exploration into and beyond our solar system.
  • China has had a fully operational space station since 2022 and is hosting long-duration crewed missions.  It’s Chang’e Lunar exploration series — Chang’e 4 was the first to land on the Moon’s far side (2019) and its Tianwen-1 orbiter and Zhurong rover successfully landed on Mars in 2021.
  • In 2023 India’s Chandrayaan-3 was able to land near the Moon’s south pole for the first time and its Mangalyaan (Mars Orbiter Mission) launched in 2013 made India the first Asian nation to reach Mars orbit. It too is planning a human spaceflight program. 

For now however, the goal of having humans “living, working and holidaying in space’ as predicted by KPMG’s Report “30 Voices on 2030” remains tantalisingly elusive, with humans unfortunately being the weak link.

The Trouble with Humans

Although some 52 people have spent extended periods in space - astronauts like Frank Rubio (371 days), Christina Koch, and Scott Kelly (more than 200 days) and the International Space Station has seen continuous habitation for over 20 years, humans are still not able to live in space independently, due to the long distances and hostile conditions such as extreme cold, lack of oxygen and exposure to radiation and as yet unknown hazards.

Though NASA’s Human Research Program is testing how microgravity affects bones, muscles, vision, and mental health in preparation for  longer missions to the Moon and Mars, it is our robot helpers  - impervious to cold and heat, hunger, fatigue, fear or boredom, who are forging ahead, gathering samples and analysing data, so that humans may be able to follow in future. 

There are however a lot of other interesting things happening in space, some of which we should most definitely be more aware of - so here goes. 

The New Space Race

In the first instance, there are many more space -going countries - around 90 to be precise. Secondly, although there are still many government -led missions (see below), there are also many private companies involved and, where previously it was all about peaceful exploration, it is now also about commercial exploitation which has given rise to new industries and new challenges.  

🌍 Government Space Agencies and Their Activities
Country Activity
China (CNSA) Tiangong Space Station; Chang’e 4 Moon far side; Tianwen-1 Mars rover
India (ISRO) Chandrayaan-3 Moon south pole; Mangalyaan Mars orbiter; Gaganyaan crewed flight
Japan (JAXA) Hayabusa2 asteroid samples; Kibo module on ISS
European Space Agency (ESA)* Rosetta comet landing; Ariane rockets; ExoMars program
Brazil (AEB) Earth observation; CBERS satellite program with China
Iran (ISA) Satellite launches; ambitions for human spaceflight
South Korea (KARI) Nuri rocket launch; lunar and satellite plans
UAE Hope Probe reached Mars orbit (2021)
Australia (ASA) Deep space communications; expanding national agency
Nigeria, Vietnam, others Satellite tech, Earth observation, education programs

The European Space Agency is made up of 23 countries with some associates such as Latvia, Lithuania and Slovakia.

Commercialisation and Colonisation of Space

In contrast to Star Trek’s idealistic pursuit of knowledge and diplomacy, today’s space missions are increasingly driven by commercial imperatives. Private companies are building infrastructure—from lunar habitats to asteroid mining platforms—often with robotic assistance and AI support.

Elon Musk’s SpaceX is seeking to fulfil his ambition of building a city on Mars and is testing new launch vehicles and life-support systems. Just a few days ago SpaceX launched a satellite, Haven - Demo as a precursor to developing a private space station.

Private space stations and orbital platforms are being developed to host research, manufacturing—some of the microgravity work looks interesting, as does space farming, and even entertainment. New launch vehicles and propulsion systems are being tested to reduce costs and increase payload capacity. Advances in AI-driven navigation, autonomous docking, and in-space manufacturing are reshaping mission design and execution. Below is a summary of who is doing what. Then we'll look at some of these industries in more detail. [If reading this on an iPhone, please turn to landscape to see this table].

Private Space Companies and Their Missions
Company Country Activity Purpose
SpaceX USA Reusable rockets (Falcon 9, Starship), Starlink internet, ISS crew transport, Mars plans Launch, infrastructure, colonisation
Blue Origin USA Suborbital tourism (New Shepard), heavy-lift rocket (New Glenn), lunar lander (Blue Moon) Tourism, lunar access
Virgin Galactic UK/USA Suborbital space tourism using air-launched spaceplanes (VSS Unity) Tourism
Rocket Lab USA/New Zealand Small satellite launches (Electron), developing reusable Neutron rocket Launch, satellite deployment
Relativity Space USA 3D-printed rockets (Terran 1, Terran R), scalable launch manufacturing Launch innovation
Axiom Space USA Private missions to ISS, building commercial space station modules Infrastructure, crewed missions
Sierra Space USA Dream Chaser spaceplane for ISS cargo; Orbital Reef station project Cargo, infrastructure
OneWeb UK Low Earth orbit satellite constellation for global broadband Communications
Astroscale Japan Space debris removal and satellite servicing Sustainability, servicing

Space Tourism, Business Parks and Entertainment

More than 650 people from over 40 countries have already visited space, many of them civilians. A further 250 -400 people are expected to fly there in 2025 alone. Although suborbital flights predominate and orbital trips remain rare and costly, companies such as SpaceX, Blue Origin, and Virgin Galactic are creating a space tourism industry that promises orbital holidays and lunar flybys. 

Here are some of things we can expect in the future – well some of us anyway. Most of the following information comes from an Our Business Ladder post "Luxury in Orbit" which also warns about some of the environmental, economic and ethical consequences of having a few billionaires controlling space. Oh yes, and watch out for the real estate speculators, who will surely not be far behind!

  • Vast Space’s Haven-1: set to be launched by SpaceX in 2026 will be a private space station and innovation centre for private astronauts as well as government missions. Haven-1 is designed to support future orbital habitats that may include tourism, media, and leisure modules. 
  •  Axiom Space has begun to build commercial modules attached to the ISS, eventually forming a standalone station. These modules are expected to host private astronauts, researchers, and possibly entertainers. 
  •   Blue Origin’s Orbital Reef: Envisioned as a "mixed-use business park" in space, which includes concepts for media production, tourism, and cultural activities.

 Media and Film Production

Space Entertainment Enterprise (SEE): A UK-based company announced plans to build an entertainment module attached to Axiom’s station, designed for filming movies and hosting live events in microgravity.

• Tom Cruise’s Space Film:  Although delayed for now, the Tom Cruise film in collaboration with NASA and Axiom, is expected to film scenes aboard the ISS, marking one of the first major cinematic ventures in orbit.

Streaming and Data Infrastructure

Starcloud’s Orbital Data Centers: While primarily focused on computing, the infrastructure could support streaming services and immersive media experiences in orbit.

Space Mining and Resource Extraction

The space mining sector is also gaining traction, with predictions of trillion-dollar industries emerging from extraterrestrial resource extraction, partly driven by shortages of some materials such as platinum on Earth. For a list of projects at various stages of development, click here.

AstroForge is leading the charge in asteroid mining, with its Vestri mission marking a pivotal moment in commercial deep-space ventures. It is targeting a metallic asteroid rich in platinum group metals (PGMs). This privately funded deep-space probe is testing models for locating and eventually extracting valuable resources. 

China is exploring the possibility of mining Helium 3 on the moon- an element rare on earth, and using that to power further exploration of space, rather than heavy payloads of fuel, and both the European Space Agency and SpaceX want use ice on the moon's polar regions to extract hydrogen for space flights and water for human consumption while in outer space. 

Emerging Tensions and Challenges

With so much and such diverse activity, it is no surprise that new tensions are arising, They include concerns over crowding, orbital debris, the spoils of resource extraction, territorial claims and about governance and equity. Here is a bit of a round -up of some of those concerns:

Crowding

Things are definitely getting busy in space with 250 launches in 2024 alone. Despite its apparent vastness, some orbits - particularly the Low Earth Orbit used for communication satellites, are not only getting increasingly crowded, but they are increasingly littered with debris, which poses a risk to all space endeavours. In 2024, the International Space Station had to use robotic collision avoidance at least 8 times and the problem is getting worse.

Space Debris

There are over 40,000 known items of space debris such as defunct satellites, rocket fragments, and mission debris. Low Earth Orbit (LEO) is especially congested, with some zones having as many inoperative satellites as active ones. Collision with fragments as small as I cm in diameter can have catastrophic results as well as leading to difficulties charting orbits or even Kessler’s Syndrome, where more and more fragments are thrown into circulation. Several steps are being taken to limit this problem in future including:

1.      Ensuring controlled re -entry of satellites and other objects after expiration

2.      Designing satellites and other objects so that they do not fragment, including not leaving behind unspent fuel or battery power which could cause satellites to explode

3.    In 2023 the European Space Agency (ESA) developed a Zero Debris Charter for countries, companies and others operating in space, agreeing to make space missions debris neutral by 2030. By mid 2025 it had been signed by 180 organisations including 33 countries, 40 companies and some NGOs such as Space Generation.org or the Secure World Foundation, which have helped to shape policy. In  January 2025 ESA also published its handbook to help participants achieve that goal. 

4.      Among ESA 's recommendations is having a fixed end life of 25 years for objects in space with lower limits in busy orbits such as as the Low Earth Orbit.  

 5.     To deal with fragments already in space, ESA is working on it’s ClearSpace Project which will attempt to remove an ‘uncooperative’ body from space in 2026. The following clip by ClearSpace explains the problem of space debris and how the company is addressing it. 

What about Roadside Assist for your Spacecraft and Satellites?

ClearSpace also plans to service, repair, refuel and recycle existing space objects so that they do not become waste. It also saves resources and the cost of getting them in and out of space as part of making space travel more sustainable.

– Videos courtesy of ClearSpace YouTube Channel

6.      Active debris removal (ADR): ESA and private firms are testing robotic arms, nets, and harpoons to capture defunct satellites. What we need now is a giant Roomba with a magnetic nozzle and a very big dustbag, to vacuum up all those fragments! 

7.      There is in fact a 1972 Treaty about countries becoming liable for any damage caused on Earth by objects falling as a consequence of human space activity and which has been signed and ratified by at least 98 countries, but that law has only been invoked once, when a part of a Russian Soyuz probe, landed in Canada. When space objects collide with others, it is up to the aggrieved party to seek redress from the other party, rather than the country and fault must be proven. 

8.      NASA is also working on a range of technologies for debris mitigation, end – of life – operations  and collision avoidance, and is particularly concerned about keeping the CISLUNAR (around the Moon) orbit free of debris, since this is likely to be the launch area for future missions deeper into  space. For this reason it wants better modelling, better monitoring and detection.  

Competition over Resources

Asteroid mining and lunar resource extraction are accelerating, competition is heating up but here too legal frameworks lag behind. 

In June 2025, Italy became the 6th country to pass national space mining laws, joining the USA, Luxembourg, The UAE, Japan and Brazil. For the most part these guarantee commercial operators to retain whatever wealth they are able to extract, subject to the laws of their own country relating to licensing and sharing of spoils. his provides certainty for investors, without which it would be almost impossible to raise the necessary funds.

However, concerns revolve around ownership rights, benefit-sharing, and environmental impact. What if for example, one country cornered the market on the water contained in the moon’s ice -something other space agencies  such as both NASA and ESA were hoping to extract hydrogen as a fuel for further exploration or in order to sustain human life?

Though there is a UN Moon Treaty (1979) governing use of the Moon’s resources and their being the common heritage of ‘mankind’ there are only 11 signatories to this treaty and 17 parties, and the major space -faring countries such as the USA, Russia, India and China have not signed or ratified it. It also has no mechanism for enforcement or penalties for violation.

The Artemis Accords

There is another Treaty as well – The Artemis Accords. Initiated by NASA and the U.S. Department of State, they were launched in October 2020 as part of the broader Artemis Program mentioned above which aims to get humans back on the Moon and eventually to Mars. 

The Accords reaffirm the original space treaty and establish a set of principles for civil space exploration, including transparency and data sharing, interoperability, peaceful use, and sustainable operations. Other key aspects include:

  • That Resource extraction does not violate the Outer Space Treaty
  • That mutual aid must be given to astronauts in distress
  • Having safety zones between missions to prevent harmful interference and avoid conflicts
  • Having a plan for mitigation of debris.

Early signatories included Australia, Canada, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, the United Arab Emirates and the United Kingdom and they have since been signed by other nations including Europe, making 56 in all. Unfortunately important space powers such China and Russia have refrained because they consider the agreement too favourable to US interests.

The other major drawback of the Accords is that they are non-binding and rely on voluntary compliance, and also have no enforcement mechanism or penalties for violations.

Many countries are now calling for a global code of conduct, similar to the UN Treaty governing that other commons -the High Seas (UNCLOS) and a draft on the peaceful uses of outer space is expected by 2027. This would seek fair allocation of rights and regard for the environment, as well as  mechanisms for enforcement, such as international courts and sanctions. 

Peaceful Use vs Militarisation

One of the biggest concerns because it represents a global security threat, is that much of the technology being deployed in space, while ostensibly for peaceful purposes, could just as well be used to wage war, should geopolitical tensions escalate. Think for example of ASAT (anti -satellite) weapons, surveillance satellites, and missile defence systems which are now common among major powers. The potential for cyberwarfare is also great. 

Although the Outer Space Treaty of 1967 forbids the use of weapons of mass destruction in orbit, it doesn't exclude other types of weapons, enforcement is weak and it doesn’t extend to the many kinds of activities or private entities now engaged in space. To add fuel to that particular fire, North Korea has quietly revised its space law, replacing the peaceful-use clauses to allow its use for military purposes in defence of its sovereignty and space rights, though it still includes other aspects such as cooperation with other agencies, rescue of astronauts and removal of foreign objects. 

Some countries - Russia, China and the United States for example, have now established space military forces to safeguard their assets in space. They are also wary of having limitations placed on their ability to defend themselves.  

If we do not want the Cosmic Commons to become a seething Arms Race in the future, we must act now to return to  the spirit of peace and scientific co -operation that was once both the hallmark and product of our adventures in space. We should by all means "Go boldly where no one has gone before," but let's also make sure we do it in that wonderful Startrek spirit which stopped the world from tearing itself apart during the Cold War. 

Many thanks to Copilot for being my personal assistant and for the usual info, tables and glitch fixes.  If only it could make coffee and do a little housework, my life would be complete. Thank you also to the various Space Agencies and others I have badgered for information. Sad to see NASA's educational pages being shut down due to the lapse in funding. 
 
So much for our little Space Odyssey. Next time I'll be returning to the series on Mitigation Measures re Climate Change particularly with respect to Agriculture

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